[closed] Elliott Wave analysis and forecast for Bitcoin / Dollar (BTCUSD) price history

I often see Bitcoin price predictions but few examples of technical analysis of the BTCUSD chart. Of all the TA methodologies, Elliott Wave analysis is (arguably) the most useful for long term trend analysis. This question seeks to invite members to submit their technical analysis (not restricted to EW) for BTCUSD. Analysis should start at Bitcoin price history inception (2009) and forecast possible price action from June 2013 to January 2014 on a 4-8 hour candle chart. Be sure to provide technical justification/reasons for projections!

I add an initial small award but more may be added as community members find participating members' analysis helpful. The cut-off date for the first round of submissions is 12h00 UTC 1 July 2013. Editing of answers up to the cut-off datetime is allowed.

The first award will go to the analysis answer that correctly forecasts the BTCUSD price on 12h00 UTC 1 Aug 2013 - OR - failing an approximate price match (+/- $5.00): the answer that most closely matches price action (Elliott Wave pattern) from 1 Jul - 1 Aug 2013.

The same criteria apply for the subsequent 5 submission rounds:

cut-off date -> target date
1 Aug 2013 -> 1 Sep 2013
1 Sep 2013 -> 1 Oct 2013
1 Oct 2013 -> 1 Nov 2013
1 Nov 2013 -> 1 Dec 2013
1 Dec 2013 -> 1 Jan 2014

Adding content as requested (@paraipan)

Bitcoin charts can be viewed and downloaded at http://bitcoincharts.com/charts

A template for charting your analysis: http://ubuntuone.com/4aKlhe7cXfJRs607vMOrZr

Limitation of Liability

The analysis and wave counts in this thread are interpretations and are speculative. Readers are advised not to construe any advice given (or implied) as a trading recommendation or investment advice. Rugatu.com and the poster will not be responsible for any losses you incur as a result.

asked 15 Jun '13, 12:47 tarzan 788110 tarzan's gravatar image
closed 10 Feb, 15:27

just make sure you tip some good ones @tarzan or else people could avoid your questions in the future. Good luck!

(15 Jun '13, 15:00) paraipan paraipan's gravatar image

@paraipan, I just added a reward and will be sure to follow your advice! :)

(15 Jun '13, 15:31) tarzan tarzan's gravatar image

Hi please contact me: castiglionemaldonado (at) gmail.com

(06 Aug '13, 04:28) Fatima Fatima's gravatar image

The question has been closed for the following reason "<user> won <value> for the best answer." by tarzan 10 Feb, 15:27

12next »

Here is my forecast for the BTCUSD chart in the weeks to come. I expect the high of 1,048 to be achieved by 30 Nov and for a correction to see us back near the $500 level. An alternative count (in red) shows a deeper correction if the coming high should be the end of a 5th wave.

alt text

answered 25 Nov '13, 14:43 tarzan 788110 tarzan's gravatar image

BTCUSD continues higher! At the time of this comment price is just above $1200 and continuation higher seems likely but the sell orders are increasing below! Caution.

(29 Nov '13, 05:35) tarzan tarzan's gravatar image

To get the ball rolling here is my own forecast submission of a 6 hour BTCUSD chart showing my preferred and alternative Elliott Wave counts up to 1 July. I will update this to show a wave count for price action up to 1 August in the coming week.

My reasons for believing that price will continue the current downtrend, is the clear trendline that has formed along the lower lows made by waves 1 and 3 since late May. If this sequence is indeed an expanding diagonal then we can expect wave 5 to terminate slightly beyond the trendline around $50 in the coming week (maybe two). This is also a long term support level as can be seen from the previous lows on the chart and the purple bar. The subsequent bounce to the upside should be strong - I have drawn this in blue up to 1 July


If price fails to retest the lows around $50 then we could be looking at continuation of the current corrective price action which could last another few months!

Update: Price action has been edging lower along the Fibonacci fan upper trendline. However, I am now of the opinion that we might be in wave e of a triangle and that a breakout to the upside (in wave C) could result. There is still the prospect of massive sell orders below $80 and the freefall implied by the next lower trendline, but I can only commit to one answer, so I am submitting the forecast drawn in blue to $160 as the most likely target for 1 August.

BTCUSD EW count2

Warning: Do Not take this as investment advice. I am speculating about the probable future price movements. Despite the technical chart and language my forecast MAY BE WRONG !

answered 16 Jun '13, 20:15 tarzan 788110 tarzan's gravatar image
edited 30 Jun '13, 14:07

updated my chart with an alternate count and the Fibonacci retracement levels for wave A of the crash.

(17 Jun '13, 08:05) tarzan tarzan's gravatar image

seems my interpretation in the first chart above was correct - let's hope it proves correct on the subsequent wave action! (actually, nevermind the subsequent action, the sell-off is still continuing...)

(05 Jul '13, 13:29) tarzan tarzan's gravatar image


Are you interested in algorithmic trading for BTC / USD ? If so, please do contact me.

Regards, Fatima

answered 03 Aug '13, 06:53 Fatima 1962 Fatima's gravatar image

@Fatima, how do I contact you? no email on your profile? perhaps drop me a line on mine.

(03 Aug '13, 13:21) tarzan tarzan's gravatar image

Please contact me: castiglionemaldonado (at) gmail.com

(09 Aug '13, 03:15) Fatima Fatima's gravatar image

OK, no winner for July, so the prize coins double with and cut-off date (for 15/08 -> 01/09) is 15 August 2013.

answered 03 Aug '13, 13:26 tarzan 788110 tarzan's gravatar image

Hi Tarzan

please contact me: castiglionemaldonado (at) gmail.com

answered 19 Aug '13, 02:33 Fatima 1962 Fatima's gravatar image

After, the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday, the markets have mostly completed their recent moves and are now set to put in last-leg corrections across the board. BTCUSD is no exception since the FOMC moment acted as catalyst for price to print a top and now BTCUSD is turning down to potentially put in a low. I have the current action as wave 5 of diagonal wave C. Completion might see a spectacular rise - or not -

alt text

answered 24 Aug '13, 12:31 tarzan 788110 tarzan's gravatar image

Interesting analisys Tarzan.

I am starting work on a trading bot. If you want to participate, in any form, please contact me. castiglionemaldonado ( at ) gmail ( dot ) com

answered 25 Aug '13, 02:18 Fatima 1962 Fatima's gravatar image

Because money transmission is such a heavily regulated business, classification as a money transmitter – especially unwitting classification – comes with real legal and practical consequences.

FinCEN regulates money transmitters pursuant to a legislative framework commonly referred to as the Bank Secrecy Act (“BSA”), which includes elements of the Patriot Act and other pieces of legislation. The primary consequence of this regulation is that money transmitters must put in place and enforce Anti Money Laundering (“AML”) and Know Your Customer (“KYC”) policies designed to aid FinCEN’s investigation of potential criminal activity.

The specific AML and KYC requirements of the BSA could (and do!) fill pages. But in short strokes, businesses must collect personally identifying information about their customers, in some circumstances report that information to FinCEN, and sometimes even outright deny service.

Suspicious transactions – or even ministerial transactions over a certain dollar amount – must be reported to FinCEN. In effect, the BSA deputizes financial institutions, requiring them to act as the government’s foot soldiers in its war on money laundering.

It’s clear why this is a problem for a bitcoin business: privacy (if not anonymity) is one of bitcoin’s most popular features. A business that identifies its customers and then reports that identity to the government simply can’t cater to the significant swathe of customers who want to keep that identity a secret.

lamassu-bitcoin-atm-300x155Moreover, the reporting requirements add a level of cost and complexity to many business models. For example, imagine an ATM-type vending machine that dispenses bitcoins or other digital currency. Before the FinCEN guidance, a company looking to roll out a network of such machines in the US could have reasonably catered to customers who were strangers: anyone walking up to the machine could see the machine, purchase bitcoin, and walk away with their coin in a matter of seconds.

After the FinCEN guidance, though, we now know that this wouldn’t be so simple. Regulators have dismissively referred to this product as a “laundry machine” – as in money “laundering”.

The guidance made clear that a business exchanging fiat for digital currency is a kind of money transmitter. Thus, the business must collect personally identifying information from the customer before entering into the transaction.

At minimum, the business must collect, record, and sometimes verify the customer’s name, address and telephone number. In the cases of international or otherwise “high-risk” clients, the business must take even more stringent identification measures.

Instead of catering to a broad customer base (anyone walking up to the machine), the company can only service customers who are pre-authorized and pre-cleared against multiple government watch lists – a significant hurdle for a fledgling product. Accordingly, some businesses simply chose not to register with FinCEN. Those that didn’t register

So it went with Mutum Sigillum. Mutum Sigillum was a US subsidiary of Mt. Gox, the popular digital currency exchange based in Japan that exchanges bitcoins for dollars and other currencies.

Mutum Sigillum allegedly used a US bank account to accept dollars from US customers and send them to Mt. Gox to fund trades on its exchange. Customers could then use Mutum Sigillum’s service to transfer dollars from Mt. Gox back to themselves in the US. In its most simplified form, its business was accepting funds from Person A, a customer, holding them temporarily, transmitting them to Person B, Mt. Gox, and back again


answered 03 Sep '13, 02:46 zazuli -3333 zazuli's gravatar image

Based on the longterm uptrend, the "deflationary" nature of BTC and QEinfinity, and the ability to avoid prying eyes BTC is enjoying robust demand. As we can see, wave one was INTENSE, going from almost nothing to $10. This was followed by a huge rout yet BTC eventually caught a bid. What proceed from here on, was wave 3 expressed by a wave subset following the tradition 1,3,5 impulse. This culminated in price exceed $250. After an ABC correction ( which works well considering wave 2 was simple, wave 4 is more complex: rule of alternation) BTC again found a bid and is now on what i believe to be wave 5 of the first trend. This could ultimately take us to $1000, but I think $500 by Xmas is doable! Hope you like this!

link text

answered 30 Oct '13, 05:29 RobberBaro... 111 RobberBaronofSpace's gravatar image

alt text

answered 05 Nov '13, 17:08 zazuli -3333 zazuli's gravatar image

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Asked: 15 Jun '13, 12:47

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Last updated: 10 Feb, 15:27

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